Yesterday I had opportunity to attend EVA – Seminar introducing Global Business Scenarios for 2020. While the near future seems to be rather turbulent for global business, companies and individuals as well, it is good good to stop for a while and consider alternative future scenarios.
In his opening speech Jorma Ollila -Nokia’s and EVA’s Chairman, reminded that no one has capability to foresee and predict the future, however we need to consider alternatives and choose our activities so that we can have impact toward desired directions. “In the current challenging economic situation we cannot allow fear to paralyze our thinking.” Wide group of people from Finnish companies, and other institutions had participated in the scenario process, while alarming news from global business world were creating dark storm clouds all over the world, making the work even more essential.
The report introduces 4 alternative global scenarios–
* West Re-invents Itself – quick economic recovery and strong linkages of Europe & US
* Chinese Capitalism – Asia takes the lead in the global business world
* Battle of the Blocks – long difficult recession with slow recovery – linkages between Europe & Russia strengthened
*Stimulus & Decline – long, ever lasting , economic crisis, – international conflicts & crisis, decline of international co-operation
It was very interesting to hear description & reflections of these alternative futures. And think what could this mean for the future of Nokia. No matter how the world changes – there will always be business opportunities!
The study also provided some aspects in the future that will be inevitable, no matter what scenario will be dominant …
* Globalization will remain important
* Role of China & India will increase … also Africa
* Energy consumption will keep growing
* World’s population will continue growing exponentially
* Growing average age of population in OECD countries
* The importance of food production will increase
* Public sector will be challenged by demands of effectiveness
* Technologies will develop with increasing speed
* Role of information networks & Social Media will increase
* Ecological view & role of environment will increase
* More emphasis on security on global, national, and individual level
* Need for competencies & innovation capabilities will be strengthened
* The battle for talent will be more intense & number of mobile global workforce will rise
* Business models will be renewed
The report (in Finnish ) is available from here.
Thanks for the reporting on the scenarios meeting. (I wouldn’t get much out of the report in Finnish!)
The purpose of building scenarios is generally to expand conversations. Thus, it’s unlikely that any of the four scenarios would happen, but some blend between the four should have emerged during the conversation.
… here is a link to PPT – set in English http://www.eva.fi/eng/index.php?m=2&show=374 – Hagen shared the link in Facebook 🙂
Enjoy!!